WHY BERNIE SANDERS FAILED: PART 2

This is Part 2 of 4 of DriveTo270’s coverage of why Bernie Sanders failed to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination for President: Click Here to read Part 1

Part 2: Low Turnout Among Millennial Voters 

Millennial voters did not turn out to the polls in the 2020 Primary. It is that plain and simple. The reasons for the low turnout among millennial voters (18-29 years old) will be examined in a future article, but it certainly crushed Sanders’ entire campaign. Millennial voters long served as the backbone of Sanders’ support, and strong turnout among this group was mandatory for his victory. Sanders, however, was unable to turn out younger voters to the polls like he did in 2016, and, comparatively, millennial voters made up a much smaller share of the electorate in 2020. Take a look at the overall share of the electorate that 18-29 year old voters made up, when compared to voters over the age of 65:

This disparity in turnout among the two age groups had disastrous consequences for Sanders, particularly in Texas. Due to the relatively low turnout among 18-29-year old voters, Sanders lost Texas by a dispiriting 4.5% margin to Joe Biden. Biden won approximately 49% of voters 65 and older in Texas, while Sanders only received 14% of that demographic’s vote. Sanders did receive an impressive 62% of the 18-29-year old vote in Texas, but this was not enough to overcome Biden’s massive advantage among 65 and older voters. 

Had voter turnout in 2020 mirrored that of 2016, then Bernie Sanders would have won the 2020 Texas Primary. Unfortunately for Sanders, his most important voters underperformed in turnout, while Biden’s strongest age group overperformed in turnout. This trend repeated itself throughout the entire campaign and explains why Sanders would generally underperform in the final results compared to polls.  

It is possible that the polling in the 2020 Primary may have misled Sanders and the public into believing he was in a better position than he actually was. Polling tries to capture what the electorate will look like on election day and a number of polls somewhat missed on capturing the age of the electorate. Many pollsters were likely using a turnout model that generally mirrored the turnout in the 2016 Democratic Primary and thus over-predicted 18-29-year old turn out. Sanders’ campaign exuded confidence that they would win Texas because his campaign also assumed that turnout would be a mirror to that in 2016.

It is also possible that in a state like Texas, younger voter turnout may have been lower due to the recent influx of out-of-state citizens. A number of these young transplants may have not yet registered to vote in the state. This would have the effect of lowering turnout among younger voters in the Texas primary and hampering Sanders’ chances at victory. The full extent of this may never be known, but Democrats must work together to ensure that younger voters are properly registered prior to the general election.  

The issue for Sanders is that he cannot use the lack of voter registration as an excuse across all voting states. Texas was not an outlier and instead represented the norm. Nearly every state that voted prior to the Covid-19 outbreak (before or on March 10th) showed the same trend of increased turnout among older voters, but lower turnout among those under the age of 29. This should raise alarm bells across the Democratic party. These voters are essential to the good fortunes of the party and Democrats will need younger voters to turn out in droves if they hope to defeat Donald Trump. There is still time to address the low turnout, but it needs to be addressed swiftly.

Joe Biden has proven to be fairly unpopular among voters under the age of 30 and he will need to more greatly advocate for positions that are pertinent to younger voters. Since even Sanders struggled with younger voter turnout, Biden will have to work incredibly hard to sway these voters to come out on his behalf. Biden at all costs must find a way to turn out younger voters in the general election if he is to be successful in November.